11/11/2022 0 Comments Drake feel no ways stereo day![]() Reported new COVID-19 cases is a proxy for the measure that concerns us. We currently have no means to count the number of infections that occurred, and even if we tested everyone for the virus’s antibodies at some point, we would still have no way of knowing the date on which those infections began. There is a great deal of difference between the actual number of new infections and the number of new infections that were reported as well as a significant difference between the date on which infections began and the date on which they were reported. Most day-to-day volatility in reported new case counts is noise-it’s influenced by several factors other than actual new infections that developed. What feature most catches your eye? For most of us, I suspect, it is the steep increase in new cases on April 3rd, followed by a seemingly significant decline on April 4th and 5th.Ī seemingly significant rise or fall in new cases on any single day, however, is not a clear sign that something significant has occurred. I also chose to begin the period with March 1st rather than 2nd, which seems more natural. Because the article did not identify its data source, I chose to base the graph below on official CDC data, so the numbers are a little different. I’ll explain, but first let me show you the data displayed graphically. ![]() How accurate should we consider daily new case counts based on the date when those counts are recorded? Not at all accurate and of limited relevance. The purpose of this blog post is not to critique the news article and certainly not to point out the inappropriateness of this data’s effects on the stock market, but merely to argue that we should not read too much into the daily ups and downs of newly reported COVID-19 case counts. ![]() Can we trust this apparent decline as a sign that the pandemic has turned the corner in the United States? I wish we could, but we dare not, for several reasons. This was perhaps a response to hope that the pandemic was easing. After the decline in the number of reported new COVID-19 cases on Sunday, April 5th, on Monday, April 6, 2020, the stock market surged (Dow Jones gained 1,627.46 points, or 7.73%). The purpose of the Investor’s Business Daily article was to examine how the pandemic was affecting the stock market. coronavirus cases jumped 25,316 on Sunday to 336,673, with new cases declining from Saturday’s record 34,196. ![]()
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